The Oscars: Partial Predictions on Who Should Take Home a Golden Boy (Part One)

Okay, good. Strike's over. That means an Academy Awards telecast, which means 10 minutes of monologue from Jon Stewart that will be received tepidly by Academy members. A couple strike-inspired jokes here, maybe a couple Paris Hilton throwaways, and a reference to TMZ.com -- who knows, maybe an entire crush of faux-paparazzi will follow Stewart around as he enters the Kodak Theater en route to the main stage. Could be funny. Could be lame. Either way, it's time for some predictions. Let it be known that I have not seen all the nominated films (still can't bring myself to see Atonement), so you can take this for what it's worth.

Writing (Original Screenplay): Juno, Lars and the Real Girl, Michael Clayton, Ratatouille, The Savages
My money is on Juno. I'd love to see Michael Clayton win, since it is a fantastic film, but Juno will take the cake here because this award is traditionally reserved for that breakout film that receives a Best Picture nod but won't win on account of making way too much money at the box office. Kudos to Diablo Cody for crafting the celluloid teen equivalent of a Gawker.com blogger: young, snarky, and dressed in an American Apparel hoodie over an ironic t-shirt.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay): Atonement, Away From Her, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, No Country for Old Men, There Will Be Blood
I would say Atonement will win here, but that's only because I'm hoping it couldn't possibly rise to the level of a Best Picture Oscar. But it's apparently such a good film that it should maybe win something... nah. This is a tight one between No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood. And while I'm a big fan of the Coen Brothers, the script for There Will Be Blood, with its dialogue-free, mind-numbingly intense opening 10-minutes and its jawdropping "I drink your milkshake," soliloquy at the film's end, is the foundation of one of the greatest American epics ever committed to film.

Visual Effects: The Golden Compass, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End, Transformers
First off, I'm a little offended that 300 didn't make the cut. Second, The Golden Compass is probably going to win this for the insurmountable task of making Nicole Kidman look like she hasn't completely ruined her face with the Botox, the lip injections, and the not-so-subtle re-sculpting she's had done to her chin. But if I had to pick, I'd give it to Transformers, because that scene where the jet plane transforms into a rollerblading Decepticon and body checks that city bus is the stuff that makes loud, obnoxious, and vapid Michael Bay films such a joy to watch.

Sound Mixing: The Bourne Ultimatum, No Country for Old Men, Ratatouille, 3:10 to Yuma, Transformers
As stated above, Transformers is loud and obnoxious, like all Michael Bay films. The word on the boulevard (Hollywood Boulevard, that is) is that the sound mixing for Bay films has been notoriously crappy, but then that sentiment is kind of trumped by Transformers getting a nomination here. I may have a little research to do with regards to sound mixing, so I can properly delineate the task from Sound Editing and Sound Design. Ultimately, by virtue of the fact that Ratatouille is an animated film, and every last sound within had to be created from scratch, the Sound Mixers who took all those aural bits of goodness and applied their audio technical alchemy to create an Oscar-worthy end product deserve to take home the Golden Boy.

Sound Editing: The Bourne Ultimatum, No Country for Old Men, Ratatouille, There Will Be Blood, Transformers
Again with the Ratatouille. Look for Jon Stewart to crack wise about the distinction between Sound Editing and Sound Mixing.

Film Editing: The Bourne Ultimatum, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Into the Wild, No Country for Old Men, There Will Be Blood
A tough one. Ultimatum is a great piece of work, as are all Paul Greengrass efforts of late (Bourne Supremacy, United 93), because it takes the sensibility of cinema verite and applies it to a mainstream action movie; it's got to be one hell of a task to piece all the moving parts together, especially when trying to get the best edit from multiple shots of Jason Bourne shattering a goon's wind pipe with the spine of a hardcover book. For all the effort, people did complain that this movie was sort of claustrophobic and nausea-inducing. I'd say Into the Wild should at least get a nod here because it had a somewhat non-linear narrative, which is not easy to pull off, but this is one of those "just be happy for the nomination" films -- which is unfortunate, because it should've received a slew of major nods. I'm going to say There Will Be Blood takes this one. It really is a brilliant film, and if any movie deserves to walk away with a fistful of Oscars, it is this Paul Thomas Anderson masterpiece. What sucks is that No Country is also an American classic, but it may be the cinematic equivalent of a Ron Paul or Dennis Kucinich: at its core, No Country represents the very essence of filmmaking, as Kucinich and Paul represent the very essence of true liberal and true conservative (or libertarian) values, respectively... but each prove to be too quirky for mainstream tastes and are ultimately marginalized. For No Country, this night will be about There Will Be Blood and the straw that reaches clear across the room, draining the Coen Brothers' milkshake.

Documentary Feature: No End in Sight, Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience, SiCKO, Taxi to the Dark Side, War/Dance
No shortage of insightful journeys into the tragically orchestrated war on terror here, as three of the five nominees surely show audiences the inner workings of life in the war zone. SiCKO is genius, and Michael Moore really hits his stride here as he tears down the curtain to reveal a morally bankrupt health insurance industry in America. Watching it made my temples pulsate out of sheer disbelief and anger. However, No End in Sight is the most bone-chilling indictment about West Wing ineptitude regarding the Iraq War you'll likely ever see. It really should be required viewing for every American citizen and anyone who considers themselves a patriot. This documentary gives new meaning to the time-honored phrase "prior proper planning prevents a piss-poor performance", and most certainly deserves an Oscar for exposing the truth behind the greatest foreign policy blunder in the history of America.

Okay, so this looks like a good place to end Part One of my Partial Predictions of Who Should Take Home a Golden Boy. Check back for Part Two, where I'll opine on how There Will Be Blood might be the greatest American film since Citizen Kane.